· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Kozlovice vs Břeclav Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Kozlovice and 1.03 for Břeclav, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Kozlovice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kozlovice win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kozlovice home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Břeclav away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kozlovice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Kozlovice and 1.03 for Břeclav, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Kozlovice
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SK Krumvir · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hluk · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Břeclav · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Holešov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Brumov · 5-0 (W)
Břeclav
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hluk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SK Krumvir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Holešov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brumov · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Kozlovice 1-1 Břeclav (4. liga - Divizie E)
- 2026-06-10T15:30:00.000Z · Kozlovice 1-0 Břeclav (4. liga - Divizie E)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Kozlovice 2-0 Břeclav (4. liga - Divizie E)
4. liga - Divizie E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Všechovice | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 30 |
| 2 | Strání | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 28 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | Slavičín | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | SK Krumvir | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Sokol Lanžhot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 7 | Prostejov B | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Holešov | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Hluk | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 11 | Břeclav | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Brumov | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -19 | 7 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -23 | 7 |
| 15 | Kroměříž II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Baťov | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -39 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kozlovice win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.