· Analysis updated 11:23 UTC
Kozuv Gevgelija vs Akademija Pandev Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Kozuv Gevgelija and 1.91 for Akademija Pandev, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Akademija Pandev the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Akademija Pandev win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kozuv Gevgelija home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Akademija Pandev away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Akademija Pandev to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 17% / 22% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Kozuv Gevgelija and 1.91 for Akademija Pandev, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.1%
Recent form
Kozuv Gevgelija
- 2026-08-30T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Ohrid · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkupi 1927 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Rabotnicki · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademija Pandev · 1-4 (L)
Akademija Pandev
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ohrid · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Shkupi 1927 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Makedonija GjP · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Venec Negotino · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Akademija Pandev win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.