Kokkolan keskuskentta · Analysis updated 12:42 UTC
KPV-j vs TPV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for KPV-j and 2.11 for TPV, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives TPV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TPV win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 2.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KPV-j home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TPV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TPV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 26% / 21% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for KPV-j and 2.11 for TPV, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.5%
- 0–26.5%
Recent form
KPV-j
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs VJS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tampere United · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SalPa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OLS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rops · 1-1 (D)
TPV
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC jazz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS Akatemia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs PKKU · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkönen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 50 |
| 2 | Rops | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 44 |
| 3 | SalPa | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | OLS | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 41 |
| 5 | VJS | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | FC jazz | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 39 |
| 7 | PKKU | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 38 |
| 8 | JJK | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 31 |
| 9 | TPV | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Inter Turku II | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 26 |
| 11 | KPV-j | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | -48 | 18 |
| 12 | KuPS Akatemia | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TPV win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.