· Referee I. O. Kristjansson · Analysis updated 13:16 UTC
KR Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.64 expected goals for KR Reykjavik and 1.60 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar, a combined total of 5.24. That distribution gives KR Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
KR Reykjavik win
74.7% probability
Expected goals
3.64 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KR Reykjavik home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KR Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 13% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.64 goals for KR Reykjavik and 1.60 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar, a combined 5.24 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 77%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.8%
- 4–16.2%
- 2–15.6%
- 3–25.4%
- 4–25.0%
Recent form
KR Reykjavik
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-10T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fram Reykjavik · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-05T19:15:00.000Z · A vs FH hafnarfjordur · 1-1 (D)
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KR Reykjavik win, at 74.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.