Ammochostos Stadium · Referee K. Neofytou · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Krasava Ypsonas vs Aris Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Krasava Ypsonas and 1.70 for Aris, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Aris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aris win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krasava Ypsonas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aris away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aris to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 24% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Krasava Ypsonas and 1.70 for Aris, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Krasava Ypsonas
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enosis · 0-0 (D)
Aris
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Karmiotissa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Krasava Ypsonas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aris win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.