· Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
KRC Gent vs Londerzeel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for KRC Gent and 1.49 for Londerzeel, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives KRC Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KRC Gent home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Londerzeel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KRC Gent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for KRC Gent and 1.49 for Londerzeel, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
KRC Gent
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RFC Wetteren · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ninove · 4-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Diksmuide · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Petegem · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem II · 3-3 (D)
Londerzeel
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs VW Hamme · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RFC Wetteren · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Albert Quévy-Mons · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Petegem · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eendracht Aalst | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Diksmuide | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Mechelen II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Oostkamp | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Sparta Petegem | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Voorde Appelterre | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Torhout | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Ninove | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | VW Hamme | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Lebbeke | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Londerzeel | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Zulte Waregem II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | RFC Wetteren | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | KRC Gent | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | HO Kalken | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Oudenaarde | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.