· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
KRC Gent vs Oudenaarde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for KRC Gent and 2.05 for Oudenaarde, a combined total of 4.59. That distribution gives KRC Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
KRC Gent win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KRC Gent home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KRC Gent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 19% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for KRC Gent and 2.05 for Oudenaarde, a combined 4.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 80%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.7%
- 3–25.8%
- 3–15.7%
- 1–25.4%
Recent form
KRC Gent
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RFC Wetteren · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ninove · 4-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Diksmuide · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Petegem · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem II · 3-3 (D)
Oudenaarde
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Voorde Appelterre · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Mechelen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oostkamp · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ninove · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eendracht Aalst | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Diksmuide | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Oostkamp | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Torhout | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Voorde Appelterre | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | VW Hamme | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | Mechelen II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ninove | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Zulte Waregem II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Sparta Petegem | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | RFC Wetteren | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | FC Lebbeke | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Londerzeel | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Oudenaarde | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | KRC Gent | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | HO Kalken | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KRC Gent win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.