· Analysis updated 07:41 UTC
Krems / Rehberg vs Oberwart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Krems / Rehberg and 1.83 for Oberwart, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Oberwart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oberwart win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krems / Rehberg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oberwart away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oberwart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 17% / 23% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Krems / Rehberg and 1.83 for Oberwart, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.6%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.0%
Recent form
Krems / Rehberg
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wiener SC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Mattersburg SV 2020 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Traiskirchen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:10:00.000Z · A vs Favoritner AC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Oberwart · 3-1 (W)
Oberwart
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Parndorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Krems / Rehberg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Leobendorf · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Ost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Wiener SC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | Oberwart | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Traiskirchen | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 24 |
| 5 | Krems / Rehberg | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Wiener Viktoria | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Fach-Donaufeld | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Scheiblingkirchen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 19 |
| 9 | Parndorf | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Leobendorf | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Mattersburg SV 2020 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Donau | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 13 | Gloggnitz | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Favoritner AC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | SV Horn | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Wienerberg | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -40 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oberwart win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.