Kristianstad vs Tvååker Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Kristianstad and 1.18 for Tvååker, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Kristianstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kristianstad home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tvååker away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kristianstad win41%

Draw27%

Tvååker win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–010.7%
0–19.3%
2–18.6%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Kristianstad

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Malmo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lund · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Laholm · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonkopings Sodra · 0-0 (D)

Tvååker

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Laholm · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hässleholms IF · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Trollhättan · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Trelleborg · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 1-2 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)
2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 2-1 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)
2019-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 1-2 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)
2019-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 1-1 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)
2018-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 4-3 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)
2018-06-06T13:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 1-1 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)
2016-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 3-1 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)
2016-05-21T14:00:00.000Z · Kristianstad 1-1 Tvååker (Ettan - Södra)

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	27	18	6	3	31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	16	3	8	18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	13	8	6	13	47
4	Lund	27	12	8	7	16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	12	8	7	11	44
6	Rosengård	27	10	10	7	4	40
7	Trollhättan	27	10	8	9	2	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	27	10	6	11	3	36
9	Olympic	27	11	3	13	1	36
10	Tvååker	27	9	8	10	-6	35
11	Skövde AIK	27	8	10	9	-9	34
12	Eskilsminne	27	9	6	12	-9	33
13	Kristianstad	27	8	6	13	-8	30
14	Laholm	27	8	5	14	-10	29
15	Angelholms FF	27	5	9	13	-15	24
16	Utsikten	27	2	6	19	-42	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.