· Analysis updated 20:54 UTC
Kristiine JK vs Kuressaare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Kristiine JK and 4.00 for Kuressaare, a combined total of 8.50. That distribution gives Kristiine JK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 91% for both teams to score, with 4–3 the single most likely scoreline at 4%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kristiine JK win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuressaare away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kristiine JK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 15% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Kristiine JK and 4.00 for Kuressaare, a combined 8.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 93% and both teams to score at 91%, with 4–3 the single most likely scoreline at 4%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–33.7%
- 4–43.7%
- 5–33.3%
- 5–43.3%
- 3–33.3%
Recent form
Kristiine JK
Kuressaare
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saku Sporting · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kristiine JK win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 91% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.