Gradski stadion Krizevci · Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Križevci vs Jarun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Križevci and 1.85 for Jarun, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Jarun the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jarun win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Križevci home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jarun away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarun to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Križevci and 1.85 for Jarun, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
Križevci
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Solin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 1-0 (W)
Jarun
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Zapresic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Varteks Varaždin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobničan Čavle · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Križevci · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Križevci 2-2 Jarun (Second NL)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · Križevci 1-1 Jarun (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-31T10:00:00.000Z · Križevci 1-3 Jarun (Friendlies Clubs)
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jarun win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.