Gradski stadion Krizevci · Analysis updated 11:27 UTC
Križevci vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Križevci and 0.98 for Varteks Varaždin, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Križevci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Križevci win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Križevci home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varteks Varaždin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Križevci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Križevci and 0.98 for Varteks Varaždin, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Križevci
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Solin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 1-0 (W)
Varteks Varaždin
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Križevci win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.