Stadion Matije Gubca · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Krško vs Dekani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Krško and 1.42 for Dekani, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Dekani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dekani win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krško home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dekani away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–210.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 57.2% vs market 44.6%, edge +12.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.6% | 57.2% | 1.75 | +12.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 47.8% | 49.1% | 2.04 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 77.7% | 78.0% | 1.28 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.9% | 27.1% | 3.69 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.75 | 50.8% | 50.9% | 1.96 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.0% | 4.55 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.6% | 72.9% | 1.37 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 55.4% | 42.8% | 2.34 | -12.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Krško
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dekani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorica · 2-0 (W)
Dekani
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilirija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Beltinci · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Krško · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Krško 0-0 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2026-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · Krško 1-1 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2025-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Krško 2-1 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2023-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Krško 1-2 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2022-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Krško 0-1 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2022-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · Krško 0-1 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2021-10-30T12:00:00.000Z · Krško 2-1 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2021-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Krško 1-1 Dekani (2. SNL)
- 2020-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Krško 0-0 Dekani (2. SNL)
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dekani win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.