Stadion Matije Gubca · Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
Krško vs Gorica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Krško and 2.03 for Gorica, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Gorica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gorica win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krško home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gorica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 16% / 21% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Krško and 2.03 for Gorica, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 52%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–37.2%
Recent form
Krško
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dekani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorica · 2-0 (W)
Gorica
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Triglav | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Jesenice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Slovan Ljubljana | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 17 |
| 6 | Ilirija | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Rudar | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Bilje | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 9 | Dekani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 | Krka | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Dravinja | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Brežice | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gorica win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.