Solidarnost Samara Arena · Referee Y. Bobrovskiy · Analysis updated 23:30 UTC
Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.22 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Krylia Sovetov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krylia Sovetov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Baltika away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Krylia Sovetov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.22 for Baltika, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.26 (model 77.0% vs market 73.2%, edge +3.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.26 | 73.2% | 77.0% | 1.30 | +3.8 |
| Double chance | Home/AwayValue | 1.40 | 69.2% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +3.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.93 | 48.0% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.78 | 34.6% | 36.3% | 2.75 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.78 | 34.6% | 36.3% | 2.75 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.76 | 54.4% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 45.6% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.48 | 65.4% | 63.7% | 1.57 | -1.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.48 | 65.4% | 63.7% | 1.57 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.78 | 52.0% | 49.7% | 2.01 | -2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.12 | 30.8% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -3.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.44 | 26.8% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -3.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Krylia Sovetov
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Baltika
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.