Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.34 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Krylia Sovetov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Krylia Sovetov win

52.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Krylia Sovetov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Makhachkala away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Krylia Sovetov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.34 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Krylia Sovetov win53%

Draw22%

Dinamo Makhachkala win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–19.5%
1–07.1%
2–07.1%
1–26.4%

Recent form

Krylia Sovetov

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)

Dinamo Makhachkala

2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	12	8	1	3	7	25
2	Zenit	11	8	0	3	12	24
3	FC Krasnodar	12	6	5	1	6	23
4	Spartak Moscow	11	7	2	2	13	23
5	CSKA Moscow	11	6	4	1	7	22
6	FC Orenburg	12	3	7	2	2	16
7	Krylia Sovetov	12	3	6	3	0	15
8	Baltika	12	3	5	4	2	14
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	4	1	6	-5	13
10	FC Rostov	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Rubin	12	2	6	4	-6	12
12	Akron	12	2	6	4	-6	12
13	Lokomotiv	11	2	5	4	2	11
14	Akhmat	12	2	5	5	-2	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	2	3	7	-14	9
16	Fakel	12	1	3	8	-12	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Krylia Sovetov win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.