Samara Arena · Analysis updated 06:21 UTC
Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.73 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Krylia Sovetov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Krylia Sovetov win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krylia Sovetov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Makhachkala away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Krylia Sovetov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.73 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Krylia Sovetov
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Dinamo Makhachkala
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zenit · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Krylia Sovetov win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.