Samara Arena · Referee D. Naboka · Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.30 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Krylia Sovetov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krylia Sovetov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Krylia Sovetov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.30 for Zenit, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Krylia Sovetov
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Zenit
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.