Samara Arena · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.87 for Zenit, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Zenit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Zenit win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krylia Sovetov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zenit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.87 for Zenit, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Krylia Sovetov
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Zenit
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zenit win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.