· Analysis updated 11:06 UTC
Krylya Sovetov II vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Krylya Sovetov II and 1.61 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krylya Sovetov II home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Krylya Sovetov II and 1.61 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Krylya Sovetov II
- 2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Barnaul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 3-0 (W)
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
- 2026-09-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 56 |
| 2 | KDV | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 43 |
| 4 | Akron II | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 32 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | -1 | 27 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -19 | 26 |
| 7 | Orenburg II | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 8 | Izhevsk | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 23 |
| 9 | Ural II | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 | Nosta | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -28 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk II | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -17 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.