Metallurg Stadium · Analysis updated 02:23 UTC
Krylya Sovetov W vs Spartak Moskva W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Krylya Sovetov W and 1.74 for Spartak Moskva W, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Spartak Moskva W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Spartak Moskva W win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Krylya Sovetov W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Moskva W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Moskva W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 17% / 23% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Krylya Sovetov W and 1.74 for Spartak Moskva W, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Krylya Sovetov W
- 2026-08-08T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Yenisey W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moskva W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rostov W · 4-0 (W)
Spartak Moskva W
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rubin Kazan W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov W · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 56 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 49 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 44 |
| 5 | Dinamo Moskva W | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 32 |
| 6 | Krylya Sovetov W | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -12 | 27 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -20 | 20 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -14 | 17 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -38 | 14 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -30 | 12 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 21 | 0 | 3 | 18 | -40 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartak Moskva W win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.