Hirnyk Stadium · Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.55 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Dynamo Kyiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dynamo Kyiv win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kryvbas KR home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Kyiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Kryvbas KR
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Polessya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpiya Savyntsi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 0-1 (L)
Dynamo Kyiv
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 5-6 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
- 2025-10-26T16:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 0-4 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
- 2025-04-12T11:05:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
- 2024-10-06T15:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-2 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
- 2024-05-18T12:30:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-3 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
- 2023-11-12T11:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
- 2023-05-08T10:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 0-1 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
- 2022-10-30T15:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-3 Dynamo Kyiv (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dynamo Kyiv win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.