Hirnyk Stadium · Referee Artem Mihaylyuk, Ukraine · Analysis updated 16:18 UTC
Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.28 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Kryvbas KR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kryvbas KR home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Kolos Kovalivka away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Kryvbas KR
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Polessya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpiya Savyntsi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 0-1 (L)
Kolos Kovalivka
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kudrivka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-13T11:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2025-08-01T12:30:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-2 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2025-05-11T11:35:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2024-11-09T16:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2024-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-0 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2023-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 3-0 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2023-03-03T11:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 1-0 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2022-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Kryvbas KR 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Polessya | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Kolos Kovalivka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.