· Referee S. Lezny · Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
ŁKS Łódź vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.11 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives ŁKS Łódź the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ŁKS Łódź win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ŁKS Łódź home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nieciecza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ŁKS Łódź to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.11 for Nieciecza, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.77 | 51.3% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 71.1% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.6% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 46.6% | 47.3% | 2.11 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.4% | 74.6% | 1.34 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 53.4% | 52.7% | 1.90 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 28.9% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.0% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -1.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 74.4% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
ŁKS Łódź
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-1 (L)
Nieciecza
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Mielec · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:47:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ŁKS Łódź win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.