Ksour Essef vs EGS Gafsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ksour Essef and 0.95 for EGS Gafsa, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Ksour Essef the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ksour Essef win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

EGS Gafsa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ksour Essef to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Ksour Essef and 0.95 for EGS Gafsa, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Ksour Essef win56%

Draw24%

EGS Gafsa win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.8%
1–111.2%
2–010.3%
2–19.8%
0–06.7%

Recent form

Ksour Essef

EGS Gafsa

2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kasserine · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs EO Sidi Bouzid · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ariana · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jendouba Sport · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ksour Essef · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redeyef	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Mégrine	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	M'saken	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	1	0	1	2	3
12	Korba	2	1	0	1	2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2	0	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Ariana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	0	1	1	-3	1
25	Moknine	2	0	1	1	-3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	0	0	2	-2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ksour Essef win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.