· Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Kuchl vs Grödig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Kuchl and 1.39 for Grödig, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Kuchl the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kuchl win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuchl home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grödig away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kuchl to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Kuchl and 1.39 for Grödig, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Kuchl
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Grödig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leonfelden · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs UFC Hallein · 4-1 (W)
Grödig
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuchl · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leonfelden · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | LASK Juniors | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 24 |
| 3 | Gurten | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Wals-Grünau | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 5 | Kuchl | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Bad Schallerbach | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Leonfelden | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Grödig | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | TSV St. Johann | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Ried II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 12 | Seekirchen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 | UFC Hallein | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Wohnbau Dietach | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 9 |
| 15 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kuchl win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.