· Analysis updated 08:33 UTC
Kuchl vs TSV St. Johann Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Kuchl and 1.07 for TSV St. Johann, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Kuchl the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kuchl win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuchl home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSV St. Johann away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kuchl to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Kuchl and 1.07 for TSV St. Johann, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Kuchl
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Grödig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leonfelden · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs UFC Hallein · 4-1 (W)
TSV St. Johann
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | LASK Juniors | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 24 |
| 3 | Gurten | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Wals-Grünau | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 5 | Kuchl | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Bad Schallerbach | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Leonfelden | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Grödig | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | TSV St. Johann | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Ried II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 12 | Seekirchen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 | UFC Hallein | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Wohnbau Dietach | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 9 |
| 15 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kuchl win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.