Turkey · 3. Lig - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd Round14:00

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Monday, 4 May 2026

IBB Kucukcekmece 100. Yil Stadi · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC

Küçükçekmece Sinopspor vs Çorluspor 1947 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Küçükçekmece Sinopspor and 1.25 for Çorluspor 1947, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Çorluspor 1947 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

  • Küçükçekmece Sinopspor home form

    6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Çorluspor 1947 away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Çorluspor 1947 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.00 goals for Küçükçekmece Sinopspor and 1.25 for Çorluspor 1947, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Küçükçekmece Sinopspor win30%
Draw29%
Çorluspor 1947 win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams to score45%

Correct score

  • 0–113.2%
  • 1–113.2%
  • 0–010.5%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 0–28.2%

Recent form

Küçükçekmece Sinopspor

  • 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Karabük İdman Yurdu · 0-4 (L)
  • 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Beykoz İshaklıspor · 5-1 (W)
  • 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pazarspor · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zonguldak Kömürspor · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs İnkılapspor · 2-0 (W)

Çorluspor 1947

  • 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Lig - Play-offs table

Full league page →

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.