Avangard · Referee Klim Zabroda, Ukraine · Analysis updated 16:18 UTC
Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.38 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Kolos Kovalivka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kolos Kovalivka win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kudrivka home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Kolos Kovalivka away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 21% / 28% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Kudrivka and 1.38 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 59.8% vs market 50.0%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 59.8% | 1.67 | +9.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 79.1% | 1.26 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.80 | 51.0% | 51.4% | 1.95 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 72.3% | 1.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 27.7% | 3.61 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.33 | 21.2% | 20.9% | 4.78 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 50.8% | 48.6% | 2.06 | -2.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kudrivka
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Polessya · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Polessya · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-3 (L)
Kolos Kovalivka
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kudrivka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · Kudrivka 2-3 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2026-07-17T12:30:00.000Z · Kudrivka 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-08T12:30:00.000Z · Kudrivka 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
- 2025-11-07T16:00:00.000Z · Kudrivka 1-3 Kolos Kovalivka (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Polessya | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Kolos Kovalivka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kolos Kovalivka win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.