· Analysis updated 12:45 UTC
Kulykiv vs Metal Kharkiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Kulykiv and 0.93 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Kulykiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kulykiv win
62.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kulykiv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metal Kharkiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kulykiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Kulykiv and 0.93 for Metal Kharkiv, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.7%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Kulykiv
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SK Poltava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-1 (D)
Metal Kharkiv
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Poltava · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inhulets · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UCSA · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | UCSA | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kulykiv win, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.