· Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Kulykiv vs UCSA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Kulykiv and 0.95 for UCSA, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Kulykiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kulykiv win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kulykiv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UCSA away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kulykiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Kulykiv and 0.95 for UCSA, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.9%
Recent form
Kulykiv
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SK Poltava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-1 (D)
UCSA
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Prykarpattia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Yarud Mariupol' | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Oleksandria | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | UCSA | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -18 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kulykiv win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.