KuPS vs Gnistan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for KuPS and 1.05 for Gnistan, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Gnistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

KuPS home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gnistan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gnistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for KuPS and 1.05 for Gnistan, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

KuPS win34%

Draw30%

Gnistan win36%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–113.2%
1–012.9%
0–012.6%
1–27.1%

Recent form

KuPS

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs VPS · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 1-1 (D)

Gnistan

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK Helsinki · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Turku PS · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK Helsinki · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	27	14	10	3	15	52
2	KuPS	27	13	9	5	15	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	13	6	7	16	45
4	Gnistan	26	11	9	6	8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	11	4	11	-2	37
6	VPS	26	10	6	10	-1	36
1	Lahti	26	10	6	10	5	36
2	Ilves	26	10	5	11	4	35
3	Turku PS	26	8	8	10	0	32
4	SJK	26	6	9	11	-6	27
5	FF Jaro	26	4	8	14	-27	20
6	Mariehamn	26	4	6	16	-27	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.