Vare Areena · Referee P. Kolaric · Analysis updated 07:48 UTC
KuPS vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for KuPS and 1.00 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives KuPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
KuPS win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KuPS home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shamrock Rovers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KuPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for KuPS and 1.00 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 75.2% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.83 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 46.6% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.70 | 25.2% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 73.7% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 52.6% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.7% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.80 | 24.8% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.2% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
KuPS
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)
Shamrock Rovers
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Waterford · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St Patrick's Athl. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KuPS win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.