KuPS vs Turku PS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for KuPS and 1.00 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives KuPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

KuPS win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

KuPS home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Turku PS away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

KuPS win58%

Draw22%

Turku PS win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.5%
1–110.5%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.3%

Recent form

KuPS

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)

Turku PS

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mariehamn · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VPS · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · KuPS 1-1 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2026-06-17T15:00:00.000Z · KuPS 2-1 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2020-11-04T16:30:00.000Z · KuPS 2-3 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2020-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · KuPS 3-1 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2018-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · KuPS 2-1 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2018-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · KuPS 3-2 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2018-06-01T15:30:00.000Z · KuPS 0-0 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2014-10-05T15:30:00.000Z · KuPS 1-0 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2014-06-18T15:30:00.000Z · KuPS 1-1 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)
2014-05-26T15:30:00.000Z · KuPS 3-0 Turku PS (Veikkausliiga)

Veikkausliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	-26	14
1	Inter Turku	28	14	10	4	14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	15	6	7	21	51
3	KuPS	28	14	9	5	17	51
4	Gnistan	28	11	9	8	3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	12	4	12	-2	40
6	VPS	28	11	6	11	-2	39
1	Lahti	27	11	6	10	9	39
2	Ilves	27	11	5	11	6	38
3	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32
4	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27
5	FF Jaro	27	4	9	14	-27	21
6	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is KuPS win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.