Savon Sanomat Areena · Analysis updated 10:40 UTC
KuPS W vs Åland United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for KuPS W and 1.88 for Åland United W, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Åland United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Åland United W win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KuPS W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Åland United W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
KuPS W
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs HPS W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs IF Gnistan · 2-0 (W)
Åland United W
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Gnistan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs HPS W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 2-0 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 1-3 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 6-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 2-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 5-2 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-07-27T14:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 0-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 2-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 1-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 3-3 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z · KuPS W 3-2 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Åland United W win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.