Savon Sanomat Areena · Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
KuPS W vs HPS W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for KuPS W and 1.20 for HPS W, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives KuPS W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
KuPS W win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KuPS W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HPS W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KuPS W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for KuPS W and 1.20 for HPS W, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
KuPS W
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs HPS W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs IF Gnistan · 2-0 (W)
HPS W
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KuPS W win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.