Kuressaare Linnastaadion · Referee J. Lorenz · Analysis updated 00:40 UTC
Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Kuressaare and 2.37 for FC Levadia Tallinn, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives FC Levadia Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Levadia Tallinn win
75.9% probability
Expected goals
0.64 – 2.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuressaare home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Levadia Tallinn away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Levadia Tallinn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 8% / 16% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Kuressaare and 2.37 for FC Levadia Tallinn, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.8%
- 0–111.7%
- 0–310.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.5%
Recent form
Kuressaare
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saku Sporting · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 3-1 (W)
FC Levadia Tallinn
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Keila · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 66 | 84 |
| 2 | Paide | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 60 |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 34 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 58 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 54 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 33 | 16 | 2 | 15 | -5 | 50 |
| 6 | Laagri | 34 | 15 | 2 | 17 | -1 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -22 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | -18 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 33 | 11 | 1 | 21 | -22 | 34 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 33 | 5 | 5 | 23 | -49 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Levadia Tallinn win, at 75.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.