Kuressaare linnastaadion · Analysis updated 17:46 UTC
Kuressaare vs Saku Sporting Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Kuressaare and 2.50 for Saku Sporting, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Kuressaare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kuressaare win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuressaare home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saku Sporting away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kuressaare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 16% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Kuressaare and 2.50 for Saku Sporting, a combined 6.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.5%
- 4–24.8%
- 2–24.7%
- 3–34.6%
- 3–14.4%
Recent form
Kuressaare
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saku Sporting · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 3-1 (W)
Saku Sporting
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-03T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna FC Zapoos · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-31T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kompanii Marjamaa · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-06-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raplamaa · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kuressaare win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.