Kuressaare vs Trans Narva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Kuressaare and 1.00 for Trans Narva, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Kuressaare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kuressaare win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kuressaare home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trans Narva away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kuressaare win59%

Draw22%

Trans Narva win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.3%
1–110.3%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.4%

Recent form

Kuressaare

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saku Sporting · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 3-1 (W)

Trans Narva

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kalju Nomme · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora Tallinn · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · Kuressaare 3-1 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)
2026-06-16T16:00:00.000Z · Kuressaare 0-0 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)
2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · Kuressaare 2-1 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)
2026-02-21T10:30:00.000Z · Kuressaare 2-2 Trans Narva (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · Kuressaare 0-0 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)
2025-07-05T14:00:00.000Z · Kuressaare 2-3 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)
2025-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Kuressaare 2-1 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)
2025-03-08T12:30:00.000Z · Kuressaare 2-0 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)
2025-02-08T12:30:00.000Z · Kuressaare 1-1 Trans Narva (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-11-09T10:30:00.000Z · Kuressaare 2-0 Trans Narva (Meistriliiga)

Meistriliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	65	81
2	Flora Tallinn	33	19	1	13	16	58
3	Paide	32	17	6	9	13	57
4	Kalju Nomme	32	15	6	11	21	51
5	Tammeka	32	15	2	15	-9	47
6	Laagri	33	15	2	16	0	47
7	Vaprus	32	10	6	16	-20	36
8	Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	-17	35
9	Nõmme United	32	10	1	21	-24	31
10	Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	-45	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kuressaare win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.