· Analysis updated 19:17 UTC
Kuřim vs Velké Meziříčí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Kuřim and 0.77 for Velké Meziříčí, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Kuřim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kuřim win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuřim home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velké Meziříčí away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 53.7% vs market 39.9%, edge +13.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.9% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +13.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.90 | 32.6% | 34.3% | 2.92 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 20.5% | 20.6% | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.35 | 65.8% | 65.8% | 1.52 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 13.7% | 13.7% | 7.30 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.0% | 79.5% | 1.26 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.4% | 86.4% | 1.16 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.1% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -13.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kuřim
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Velké Meziříčí · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Bohunice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Tasovice · 1-1 (D)
Velké Meziříčí
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Kuřim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bedrichov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Velká Bíteš · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · Kuřim 3-0 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2026-04-26T08:15:00.000Z · Kuřim 2-1 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · Kuřim 1-3 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-04-26T08:15:00.000Z · Kuřim 1-0 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2024-09-22T08:15:00.000Z · Kuřim 2-0 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2023-07-23T15:00:00.000Z · Kuřim 2-0 Velké Meziříčí (Cup)
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | FS Třebíč | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Sokol Tasovice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Velké Meziříčí | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Humpolec | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Chotebor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kuřim win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.