Kustosija vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Kustosija and 1.75 for Dinamo Zagreb U21, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Dinamo Zagreb U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dinamo Zagreb U21 win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kustosija home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Zagreb U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Kustosija and 1.75 for Dinamo Zagreb U21, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kustosija win32%

Draw23%

Dinamo Zagreb U21 win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–29.1%
2–17.4%
0–17.3%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Kustosija

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jadran LP · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Cibalia · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 0-1 (L)

Dinamo Zagreb U21

2026-10-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dugopolje · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · Kustosija 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb U21 (First NL)

First NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia Zmijavci	10	6	1	3	6	19
2	Segesta Sisak	10	5	2	3	4	17
3	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	5	2	3	3	17
4	Jadran LP	9	4	4	1	5	16
5	HNK Cibalia	10	4	4	2	0	16
6	Orijent 1919	10	4	3	3	1	15
7	Opatija	10	4	2	4	0	14
8	Mladost Ždralovi	9	4	2	3	-1	14
9	Karlovac 1919	10	4	2	4	-2	14
10	Kustosija	10	3	4	3	0	13
11	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	4	0	6	0	12
12	Sesvete	10	3	2	5	0	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	3	2	5	-2	11
14	Vukovar	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Dugopolje	10	2	4	4	-2	10
16	Hrvace	10	2	2	6	-7	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Zagreb U21 win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.