Stadion Kustosija · Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Kustosija vs Dugo Selo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Kustosija and 1.07 for Dugo Selo, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Dugo Selo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kustosija home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dugo Selo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dugo Selo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Kustosija and 1.07 for Dugo Selo, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Kustosija
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jadran LP · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Cibalia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 0-1 (L)
Dugo Selo
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Varteks Varaždin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Uskok Klis · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.