Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium · Referee J. Jayed · Analysis updated 10:32 UTC
Kuwait vs Iraq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Kuwait and 1.22 for Iraq, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Kuwait the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kuwait win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuwait home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Iraq away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kuwait to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Kuwait and 1.22 for Iraq, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Kuwait
- 2026-09-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oman · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Iraq · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-12-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs United Arab Emirates · 1-3 (L)
Iraq
- 2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kuwait win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.