Achter de Kazerne · Referee B. Verbeke · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for KV Mechelen and 2.10 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives St. Truiden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St. Truiden win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KV Mechelen home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Truiden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–27.7%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
KV Mechelen
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lommel United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 2-2 (D)
St. Truiden
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louvière · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T16:30:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 0-3 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 1-4 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 0-1 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 1-3 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-02-21T19:45:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 1-1 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-11-08T19:45:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 1-2 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-05-12T14:00:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 1-2 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-04-05T18:45:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 2-3 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-12-03T15:00:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 0-2 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-09-17T17:15:00.000Z · KV Mechelen 0-2 St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St. Truiden win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.