Kvant vs Zenit Penza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Kvant and 1.58 for Zenit Penza, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Kvant the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kvant home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit Penza away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kvant win44%

Draw23%

Zenit Penza win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–18.8%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Recent form

Kvant

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Strogino · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shumbrat · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Tambov · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Avangard Kursk · 1-1 (D)

Zenit Penza

2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salyut-Belgorod · 1-7 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orel · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva III · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-28T11:00:00.000Z · Kvant 2-2 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2025-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · Kvant 1-0 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2025-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Kvant 1-1 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2024-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Kvant 0-2 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2024-05-19T11:00:00.000Z · Kvant 0-3 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2023-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · Kvant 2-1 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2023-06-04T15:00:00.000Z · Kvant 2-2 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2023-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Kvant 1-1 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2022-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · Kvant 0-0 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
2022-04-10T11:00:00.000Z · Kvant 1-0 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)

Second League - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	18	2	2	34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	17	2	3	25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	12	4	6	11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	12	4	6	10	40
5	Ryazan	21	11	7	3	22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	12	3	7	16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	11	5	6	14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	8	6	8	-1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	8	4	10	3	28
10	Strogino	22	7	4	11	-10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	7	3	12	-8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	7	2	12	-16	23
13	Orel	22	6	5	11	-13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	4	2	16	-20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	2	8	12	-25	14
16	Kvant	22	1	3	18	-42	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.