Het Kuipje · Referee B. Van Driessche · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
KVC Westerlo vs Antwerp Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.24 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives KVC Westerlo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KVC Westerlo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Antwerp away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 44.6% vs market 35.5%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +9.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.3% | 56.5% | 1.77 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 43.3% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 3.95 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.4% | 31.2% | 3.21 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.2% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.6% | 68.8% | 1.45 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
KVC Westerlo
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lommel United · 0-4 (L)
Antwerp
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liege · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Truiden · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T18:45:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 0-2 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-04-25T18:45:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 2-4 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2026-02-15T15:00:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 2-0 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 2-0 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-01-19T18:15:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 2-3 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-09-21T16:15:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 1-2 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-12-23T17:15:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 2-2 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 0-3 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-12-27T19:00:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 3-3 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · KVC Westerlo 0-3 Antwerp (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.