· Analysis updated 00:45 UTC
KVC Westerlo vs Samsunspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.10 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives KVC Westerlo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
KVC Westerlo win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KVC Westerlo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Samsunspor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KVC Westerlo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.10 for Samsunspor, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
KVC Westerlo
- 2026-10-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs SK Beveren · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 4-2 (W)
Samsunspor
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KVC Westerlo win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.