Het Kuipje · Referee Bert Put, Belgium · Analysis updated 01:49 UTC
KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 2.46 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Union St. Gilloise the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
Union St. Gilloise to Win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 2.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–26.0%
Why the model likes this
Union St. Gilloise away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union St. Gilloise to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 22% / 19% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for KVC Westerlo and 2.46 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined 3.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
KVC Westerlo
Union St. Gilloise
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge KV · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Antwerp | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Zulte Waregem | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Charleroi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Genk | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Standard Liege | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | KVC Westerlo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.