Kysucké Nové Mesto vs Jednota Bánová Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Kysucké Nové Mesto and 1.26 for Jednota Bánová, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Kysucké Nové Mesto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kysucké Nové Mesto win

48.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kysucké Nové Mesto home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jednota Bánová away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kysucké Nové Mesto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Kysucké Nové Mesto and 1.26 for Jednota Bánová, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kysucké Nové Mesto win48%

Draw24%

Jednota Bánová win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.5%
1–08.8%
2–07.5%
1–26.9%

Recent form

Kysucké Nové Mesto

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Fiľakovo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rimavská Sobota · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dolný Kubín · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Čadca · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Medzibrod · 5-0 (W)

Jednota Bánová

2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 0-6 (L)
2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kysucké Nové Mesto · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fomat Martin · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiľakovo · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Námestovo · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · Kysucké Nové Mesto 2-0 Jednota Bánová (3. liga - Center)
2025-11-02T09:30:00.000Z · Kysucké Nové Mesto 0-4 Jednota Bánová (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ružomberok II	12	9	2	1	26	29
2	Námestovo	12	9	1	2	18	28
3	Čadca	12	8	1	3	19	25
4	Fomat Martin	12	8	0	4	8	24
5	Fiľakovo	12	6	3	3	5	21
6	Oravské Veselé	12	5	2	5	-3	17
7	Podkonice	12	4	4	4	3	16
8	Baník Kalinovo	12	5	1	6	-10	16
9	Rimavská Sobota	12	5	0	7	-4	15
10	Novohrad Lučenec	12	4	1	7	-1	13
11	Banská Byst II	12	3	3	6	-10	12
12	Kysucké Nové Mesto	12	2	2	8	-16	8
13	Sokol Medzibrod	12	2	2	8	-21	8
14	Dolný Kubín	12	1	4	7	-14	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kysucké Nové Mesto win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.