· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Kyustendil vs Bansko Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kyustendil and 1.33 for Bansko, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Kyustendil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kyustendil home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bansko away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Kyustendil
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bansko · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Razlog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Natsional Sofia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 3-1 (W)
Bansko
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyustendil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Strumska Slava · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oborishte · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 0-3 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2026-03-07T13:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 2-0 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 3-2 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 3-2 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 0-0 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 1-0 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 1-0 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 1-0 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 0-2 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Kyustendil 0-0 Bansko (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.